The bitcoin price has more than doubled since the implosion of major crypto exchange FTX last year, climbing as expectations soar the Federal Reserve could be about to blow up the market.
Now, as fears of a bitcoin “rug pull” emerge, historical November bitcoin price data suggests the crypto market could be about to be hit by a $300 billion earthquake.
Last week, “cemented October’s reputation as ‘Uptober,’ with bitcoin witnessing nearly a 29% increase in value,” Rachel Lin, the chief executive of Singapore-based derivatives DEX SynFuture, said in emailed comments.
“Even more interesting is that when we look at historical data, November tends to be even better than October, with an average return of over 35% in bitcoin. If this November were to deliver similar returns, we could see bitcoin reach around $47,000 in the next 30 days”—a price increase that would add around $300 billion to bitcoin’s near-$700 billion market capitalization.
Meanwhile, Lin pointed to options data that shows traders are betting the bitcoin price will continue to climb in the coming weeks and months.
“Options data also reflects a bullish mood in the market,” Lin said. “As of today, the top two options with the largest open interest are the 40,000 December call and the 45,000 December call. Even the 50,000 December call option has over 5,000 Bitcoin open interest. This suggests a large number of people are willing to bet that bitcoin will be significantly higher in two months than what it is today.”
Since June, the bitcoin and crypto market has been closely watching a clutch of bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, with BlackRock’s bitcoin spot ETF filing sending expectations soaring that Wall Street and institutional money is about to flood into the crypto market.
“What’s also particularly noteworthy is the spike in spot volume, with a marked increase in large transactions exceeding $100,000,” Lin said. “This is a clear indicator of heightened institutional interest, as big players are seemingly consolidating their positions in the digital asset, specifically bitcoin.”
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